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Anyone talking about supply chains today is inevitably also talking about geopolitics. Trade flows, access to raw materials and logistics infrastructure are determined less and less exclusively by market mechanisms, and more and more by political and strategic choices.
That observation is central to supply chain expert Alex Van Breedam's new annual review, bundled in the master class “From 2025 to 2026: Supply Chains in a World That Refuses to Stabilize.” The analysis shows how the increasing importance of geopolitics, interacting with other forces such as technology and climate, is leading to structural volatility in supply chains, and why companies need to embed resilience increasingly explicitly in their strategic and managerial decision-making.
The master class analyzes the geopolitical events of 2025 through the lens of the supply chain. Van Breedam identifies seven structural drivers of change - economic growth, geopolitics, tariffs, climate, technology, labor markets and regulations - that directly impact supply chain decisions today.
That analysis is translated into four crucial dimensions for companies: volatility, resilience, cost and logistics operations.
A central observation is that supply chains have been increasingly explicitly used as a policy tool since 2025. Import tariffs, trade restrictions and strategic dependencies not only drive trade flows, but also influence investment decisions, network structures and location choices. Access to scarce resources, energy and logistics infrastructure is coming under increasing pressure from geopolitical tensions, militarization and shifting power blocs.
These developments lead to an almost structural form of volatility in supply chains. Tariffs in particular proved to be a major source of unpredictability in 2025. Traditional East-West goods flows were severely disrupted, in part because China diverted a significant portion of its exports towards the United States to Europe.
More than half of the companies saw their supply chain costs rise 10 to 15 percent as a result. In the United States, more than 1.2 million supply chain jobs were also lost since the introduction of new tariffs.
“Supply chains no longer function within a stable economic environment,” Van Breedam argues. “Instability has become the context, not the exception.”
Since the corona pandemic, disruptions have followed one another in rapid succession. According to Van Breedam, it is no longer sufficient to manage each crisis individually. Companies must develop a structural strategy for supply chain resilience, driven from the highest level of management.
Whereas the supply chain function used to revolve primarily around transportation and distribution, today it has become a key function within the enterprise. After all, decisions about energy and raw material procurement, network architecture, inventory policy and strategic partnerships have a direct impact on both continuity and competitiveness.
Investment will therefore increasingly be weighed in terms of an explicit ‘resilience cost’: the price organizations are willing to pay to absorb shocks.
The outlook for 2026 remains uncertain, according to the analysis, especially in Europe. Economic growth is under pressure and volatility will increase rather than decrease. Risks that already manifested themselves in 2025 - including geopolitics and climate - continue unabated.
Van Breedam formulates nine recommendations to better arm companies against that increasing volatility and unpredictability. At their core is a shift toward greater resilience and faster, smarter decision-making. In a structurally difficult environment, high-performing organizations can build a competitive advantage just faster, while others risk falling behind or even disappearing altogether.
The master class consists of a video presentation, a podcast and a comprehensive written report and is freely accessible via: https://iscn.academy/from-2025-to-2026/
