Dr. Alex Van Breedam on volatility, geopolitics and the supply chain of 2026

‘This is no longer a crisis, this is the new normal’

Anyone waiting for ‘normalization’ in supply chain today is in danger of being hopelessly left behind. That is the clear message of Prof. Dr. Alex Van Breedam, futurist, entrepreneur and founder of supply chain orchestrator Tri-Vizor and the knowledge platform ISCN.Academy. He outlines very clearly why instability has become structural. And what companies need to do now to stay relevant.

“Stay optimistic and resilient,” reads his core message to CEOs. But behind that seemingly simple sentence lies a fundamental rewriting of how we should look at logistics and supply chain.

Since the end of the covid crisis, companies have gone from one disruption to another. What began as an exceptional crisis has evolved into a permanent state of uncertainty, according to Van Breedam.

Among other things, he refers to the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) and the Global Supply Chain Volatility Index, which show that volatility is not a temporary upsurge but is structurally embedded in a global economy under increasing geopolitical pressure. Before covid, forecasting was largely based on historical data: to predict the future, you had to look primarily to the past. Today, that model no longer works. “Those who only look in the rear-view mirror miss what is emerging on the horizon,” he argues. AI is therefore increasingly used to look ahead: geopolitical evolutions, extreme weather conditions, disruptions in production or sales.

Supply chains as a geopolitical weapon

One of the most profound shifts, he says, is the ‘weaponization of supply chains. Trade tariffs are the most visible example of this.

But the impact goes much further:

• Rare earths (rare earths): alarming concentrations, with up to 95% of mining of certain critical materials occurring in China. They are essential for both energy transition and military applications.
• Semiconductors: production concentrated at players like TSMC in Taiwan, a geopolitically highly sensitive area.
• Water: large data centers consume as much water as tens of thousands of households per year.
• Copper: crucial for electrification and e-mobility (an electric car contains on average about 150 kg of copper).

Commodities are increasingly used as a bargaining tool between power blocs. This makes supply chain no longer a purely operational domain, but a strategic and geopolitical playing field.

Tactical stockpiling versus strategic redesign

During recent trade tensions, we saw massive frontloading: companies shipping inventories early to avoid import tariffs. That led to extreme swings in shipping volumes and a two-speed market. But merely increasing inventories is not a sufficient structural solution, according to Van Breedam. Resilience should not be a hotchpotch of ad hoc measures. It must be anchored in a clear strategy, carried from the boardroom. Needless to say, supply chain has definitely advanced to strategic board level since covid.

From ‘cost of service’ to ‘cost of resilience’

Whereas companies used to think primarily in terms of service level and cost efficiency, Van Breedam advocates expanding with a cost of resilience mindset.

How much extra are you willing to invest to be protected against disruptions, not 95%, but 98%? What price are you willing to pay for sustainability as well as resilience?

This requires scenario thinking, where all possible scenarios, including the worst ones, are explicitly worked out, ranging from detour to even plant closures or switching to contract manufacturing.

Friendshoring and industrial repositioning

Another notable evolution is friendshoring: shifting production to countries within friendly power blocs. According to Van Breedam, many of the companies operating in China today are considering a partial move to countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia or India. For Europe and Flanders, this means both risks and opportunities. In this regard, Flanders has some strong assets, including:

• Pharmaceutical clusters around Puurs, Bornem and Limburg;
• The unique sea-air interface between the port of Antwerp-Bruges and Brussels Airport, interesting for distribution of spare parts;
• Imec as a global player in semiconductor research;

But at the same time, chemicals and energy-intensive industries are under pressure from high energy costs and the energy transition. A new industrial policy, which focuses on the synergy between industry and logistics, is compelling, according to Van Breedam.